Quick poll: At Newark Summit, predictions for 2024 are mixed

Will things be better or worse? Our unscientific poll at real estate event found split reaction

Will 2024 be better — or worse — for commercial real estate in the state? Depends on whom you ask. We did — at the first Newark Summit on real estate (and more) on Monday morning at Ironside Newark.

In a rarity for the unscientific polls ROI-NJ has become known for at events such as this, the reactions were mixed. Almost perfectly so — with 44% of the respondents saying they felt the sector would improve, as opposed to 48% who felt it would get worse. (8% thought it would stay the same).

The reasons for the responses were diverse. Here are a few. And, as always is the case, we offer people anonymity:

For those who feel the sector will pick up:

  • People know what the cost is now. For a while, interest rates and supply chain costs were changing by the hour. There’s more stability now.
  • The state has been laying the groundwork for this through a lot of innovative programs. Those will come to fruition next year.
  • I think companies — and the state — are finding new ways to incentive people to come back to work. Plus, I think a lot of people want to go back to work. So, I think the sector will pick up.
  • Congestion pricing will have a huge impact. Companies that have been thinking of coming back here have another really good reason to do so.

For those who feel the sector will go down:

  • It’s time. There’s usually a correction every 8-10 years, I feel like we haven’t had one in 20 years. It’s time.
  • Money is no longer free. The impact of that is still being felt — and will be felt for a while.
  • People follow the smart money — and the smart money no longer is investing.
  • The cost of everything is still too high. Or higher than it has been in some time. That has scared people.

Of course, anyone who has ever taken a poll knows one universal truth: There always is someone who wants to have it both ways. We found that person.

“I think things will be great for Q1 and Q2 — as a lot of people will work to get projects going. Then, you’ll see a slowdown in Q3 and Q4 as people wait to see what happens in the election.”