Electrical rate hikes and warnings of potential shortages have highlighted the need for New Jersey to generate more electricity. Coupled with ambitious plans for data centers and technologies like electric cars and electric heat pumps, the state needs to get more electricity from somewhere.
According to the latest results from the FDU Poll, in cooperation with the Fuel Merchants Association of New Jersey, voters are about evenly split between preferring more natural gas plants and more nuclear energy, with other options like importing electricity from other states proving less popular.
The survey had questions asking about the need for more electrical generation in multiple contexts. Respondents were asked separately about energy production in the context of economic development, support for climate-friendly technologies, and the need to replace aging nuclear power plants. While responses differed across these contexts, there are some clear conclusions about how voters think New Jersey should be producing electricity.
“There are no easy choices here for most voters,” said Dan Cassino, a Professor of Government and Politics at FDU, and the executive director of the Poll. “Every potential source of electricity has real trade-offs, especially with offshore wind off the table for the time being.”
Across the three contexts, support for nuclear power is stable, at about 1/3rd of voters. Similarly, support for building more natural gas production is stable at about 1/3rd of voters. When waiting to build up green energy production like offshore wind farms is an option, it’s similarly popular; when it’s not, many respondents say that they don’t know what the state should do. Options like importing electricity from other states – mostly produced by natural gas or coal – and simply not making investments in technology that would require more electricity prove to be unpopular.
“As electricity costs are spiking in New Jersey, state residents are overwhelmingly against importing power that includes coal energy and prefer nuclear or natural gas as options since wind is clearly not an option anymore,” said Eric DeGesero, Executive Vice President of the Fuel Merchants Association of NJ.
The support for nuclear power is most concentrated among young voters, with 46 percent of voters 30 and under saying that they would support building more nuclear plants to replace the aging plants that provide almost half of current energy production in the state. Older voters are much more likely to support building more natural gas plants. For instance, when asked about the need to generate electricity for data centers and other economic development proposed by Governor Murphy, 44 percent of voters 30 and under say that the state should build more nuclear plants, with 22 percent supporting more natural gas plants. Among voters 65 and over, this is almost reversed, with 24 percent supporting more nuclear and 37 percent supporting more natural gas.
“A lot of the opposition to nuclear power comes from people who remember Chernobyl or Three Mile Island,” said Cassino. “Voters who don’t remember nuclear disasters and are more concerned about climate change don’t see any problems with having more nuclear in the mix.”
Support for building more natural gas plants is about equal to support for more nuclear energy but driven by political views as well as age. Republicans and MAGA voters are generally more supportive of building more natural gas plants, while Democrats and liberal voters are less supportive. When asked about the need for more electricity in order to support technologies seen as environmentally friendly, like electric cars and electric heat pumps, 51 percent of Democrats say that the state should wait to build green energy plants with only 16 percent say that we should build more natural gas plants. In contrast, 53 percent of Republicans say that the state should invest in natural gas, with only 10 percent saying that we should wait for green energy.
“Older voters especially are hesitant about nuclear energy, and see natural gas as a safer alternative,” said Cassino.
While voters are about evenly split between support for natural gas, green energy and nuclear energy, some options are decidedly less popular. When importing electricity from other states is given as an option in the context of replacing nuclear energy plants, only 12 percent of voters say that it’s a good idea, without any significant partisan or age gap.
“The poll is clear New Jersey residents want to limit price spikes and ensure a sufficient energy supply now, so we can’t depend on a delay and pray ‘plan’ for expanding nuclear capacity as that’s best case a decade away. We need to flip the switch on natural gas plants today,” said DeGesero.
In the context of economic development and needing electricity to power data centers and other businesses that could bring new jobs to the state, voters are essentially split between the use of nuclear energy (35 percent) and natural gas (29 percent), with another 19 percent saying that the state should just forego such development. When the question instead asks about the need to power consumer technology perceived as environmentally friendly, 30 percent of respondents say that the state should just wait until green energy options can be brought online, no different than support for nuclear energy (29 percent) or natural gas plants (32 percent).
“People want all of these new technologies, but there’s just no agreement on how to power them,” said Cassino. “Whichever direction the state goes is guaranteed to upset someone.”
Today, about 40 percent of the electricity generated in New Jersey comes from aging nuclear plants, which the state has been subsidizing. Despite perceptions that nuclear energy is unpopular, replacing these plants with more nuclear power is just as popular (35 percent support) as replacing them with more natural gas plants (35 percent).
“The Murphy administration has been holding out for offshore wind to get the electricity we need,” said Cassino. “Right now, though, it just doesn’t look like that’s happening any time soon, so the choice is between nuclear, natural gas and just importing the energy and hoping that it’s relatively clean.”
