The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined 2 points in September to 98.8, the first decline in three months, though it remains above the survey’s 52-year average of 98. The Uncertainty Index rose 7 points from August to 100, the fourth-highest reading in over 51 years.
“Optimism among small business owners in New Jersey and nationwide decreased in September. Small business owners are working hard to meet their customers’ needs and retain their workforce, but it’s not easy,” said NFIB State Director Eileen Kean. “Between hiring challenges, sales uncertainty, rising costs, and this year’s gubernatorial and Assembly elections, it makes sense why our members here in New Jersey have doubts about what comes next.”
Supply chain issues and inflation were the leading areas of concern among small business owners. Finding qualified applicants for job openings continues to be a problem for small business owners.
Key findings include:
- Supply chain and inflation issues stood out as a key problem in the report. The net percent of owners raising average selling prices rose 3 points from August to a net 24% (seasonally adjusted). A net 31% (seasonally adjusted) plan to increase prices over the next three months, up 5 points from August.
- Fourteen percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business (higher input costs), up 3 points from August.
- In September, 64% of small business owners reported that supply chain disruptions were affecting their business to some degree, up 10 points from August.
- A net negative 7% (seasonally adjusted) of owners viewed current inventory stocks as “too low” in September, down 7 points from August. This was the largest monthly decline in the survey’s history.
- One bright spot was actual earnings changes (the net percent of owners reporting higher vs. lower profits), which increased three points in September, up to its highest level since December 2021.
- The net percent of owners expecting better business conditions fell 11 points from August to a net 23% (seasonally adjusted).
- In September, 18% of small business owners cited labor quality as their single most important problem, down 3 points from August and tying with taxes as the top single most important problem.
As reported in NFIB’s monthly jobs report, a seasonally adjusted 32% of all small business owners reported job openings they could not fill in September, unchanged from August. The last time unfiled job openings fell below 32% was in July 2020 during the worst of the pandemic.
Of the 58% of owners hiring or trying to hire in September, 88% reported few or no qualified applicants for the positions they were trying to fill. A seasonally adjusted net 16% of owners plan to create new jobs in the next three months, up 1 point from August and the fourth consecutive monthly increase. Hiring plans are at their highest level since January.
Labor costs reported as the single most important problem for business owners rose by 3 points from August to 11%. Seasonally adjusted, a net 31% reported raising compensation, up 2 points from August. A seasonally adjusted net 19% plan to raise compensation in the next three months, down 1 point from August.
The NFIB Research Center has collected Small Business Economic Trends data with quarterly surveys since the fourth quarter of 1973 and monthly surveys since 1986. Survey respondents are randomly drawn from NFIB’s membership. The report is released on the second Tuesday of each month. This survey was conducted in September 2025.
