With the 2025 New Jersey gubernatorial campaign heading for the homestretch, the race appears to be tightening, based on averages from pollsters gleaned by Real Clear Politics.
The Real Clear Politics Poll Average has Rep. Mikie Sherrill, the Democrat, leading Republican Jack Ciattarelli 47.2% to 43.7%, or 3.5%. That average was arrived at from data compiled by six polling organizations between Sept. 22 and Oct. 15 – The Hill/Emerson, Quantus Insights, Quinnipiac, Rasmussen Reports, Trafalgar/Insider/Advantage and Fox News.
The Hill/Emerson poll, taken on Sept. 22-23, has the race tied at 43. Quantus Insights, whose poll was taken on Sept. 29-30, has Sherrill up 48-46. A Quantus Insights poll in early September had her leading, 49-39. Earlier this week, a Quinnipiac poll had Sherrill ahead of her GOP rival, 51-44. In a poll taken Sept. 11-15, the Democrat led Ciattarelli, 51-42.
Rasmussen Reports, which polled the race on Oct. 8-9, had Sherrill leading 46-40. Trafalgar/Insider/Advantage’s poll from Oct. 14-15 gave Sherrill a one-point advantage, 45-44. A Fox News poll from Oct. 10-14 showed Sherrill with a 50-45 lead. A Fox News poll from Sept. 25-28 had Sherrill ahead 50-42.
Rutgers-Eagleton, which has not published a poll since Aug. 11, had Sherrill up 47-37. In its first poll after both candidates won their primaries in June, Sherrill had a 56-35 lead over Ciattarelli.
The gubernatorial race has become heated and increasingly personal in recent weeks. Sherrill this week called Ciattarelli a “total baby” for threatening to sue her over claims that his past work as a medical publisher was complicit in the nation’s deadly opioid epidemic.
Ciattarelli then accused Sherrill of accepting campaign donations from pharmaceutical companies. The Republican has also raised concerns about Sherrill’s role in a cheating scandal at the Naval Academy when she attended the school. Sherrill has also been forced to explain how her net worth has dramatically risen since she joined Congress in 2019.
