The 2025 New Jersey gubernatorial race is heading toward a fiery, down-to-the-wire finish, with candidates crisscrossing the state and importing party heavy hitters in the closing days of the campaign to rally the voting bases.
The Real Clear Politics Poll Average on Nov. 3 had Democrat hopeful Mikie Sherrill holding a 3.3-percentage point lead over GOP nominee Jack Ciattarelli, 48.9% to 45.6%.
The RCP averaged results from eight polling organizations, all of which had Sherrill ahead. Atlas Intel had the most recent polling numbers of the group, conducted Oct. 25-30, and Sherrill led by 1 point, 50%-49%, within the 2-point margin of error. Two other polls – co/efficient and Trafalgar/InsiderAdvantage – also had Sherrill ahead by 1 point.
Two polls had Congresswoman Sherrill up by 7 points – Fox News and Quinnipiac.
The Rutgers-Eagleton poll, which was not part of the RCP aggregate, had Sherrill up 50%-45% in a poll conducted Oct. 3-17.
After the candidates won their respective primaries in June, the first Rutgers-Eagleton poll showed Sherrill ahead of Ciattarelli 56%-35%. Since then, Ciattarelli has whittled the lead.
The campaign has devolved into increasingly personal attacks and accusations. The Republican has been hammering the Democrat over her involvement in a cheating scandal while Sherrill was at the Naval Academy. Sherrill also was forced to explain how her income increased dramatically while serving in Congress.
Sherrill countered by saying Ciattarelli’s publishing company bears responsibility for printing pharmaceutical industry materials about opioids saying they were safe and accused Ciattarelli of killing tens of thousands of people while profiting off the opioid epidemic.
Historically, New Jersey has voted “blue,” or Democrat, in presidential and Senate races but has switched between Democrat and Republican governors. Voters have usually picked the nominee in the party opposite of the president’s party.
Two-term Democratic incumbent governor Phil Murphy is term-limited. Murphy defeated Ciattarelli, 51.2%-48% in 2021. He has endorsed Sherrill. No political party has held the New Jersey governorship for three straight terms since 1961.
In order for Ciattarelli to win deep blue New Jersey, he must capture a sizable number of independent voters and capture a large group of disaffected Democrats. Democrats outnumber Republicans by about 860,000 registered voters.
Ciattarelli has the endorsement of President Donald Trump, who has not campaigned on the ground for Ciattarelli in New Jersey. Trump’s approval rating is underwater in New Jersey and the Sherrill campaign has made the president an issue. Former President Barack Obama campaigned for Sherrill in Newark on Nov. 1.
