PJM Interconnection said Nov. 3 that it and its members have sufficient resources to serve the 67 million people in the grid operator’s service area this winter under expected conditions, even as electricity demand continues to outpace the addition of generating resources.
PJM, the grid operator for 13 states including New Jersey and the District of Columbia, said it expects to have 180,800 megawatts of operational capacity to serve a forecasted peak electricity demand of approximately 145,700 megawatts, which would set a record if reached. This expectation is based on PJM and the PJM resources continuing to take operational steps to improve generator performance during extreme winter conditions.
PJM said it reached an all-time winter high of 143,700 MW on Jan. 22 of this year, 2,000 MW less than this winter’s forecast peak. PJM said it has added about 4,800 MW of new generation (nameplate capacity) since last winter, most of it solar; that translates to approximately 1,000 MW more operational capacity for the 2025-2026 winter.
PJM forecasts a generation reserve margin of 7,500 MW, after taking into account expected generation outages, electricity exports and other factors. This is down from 8,700 MW last year. This margin factors in winter generation performance that has improved since Winter Storm Elliott; that margin could shrink further if generators perform poorly.
Winter Storm Elliott slammed the central and eastern United States Dec. 23-26, bringing the coldest recorded Christmas in decades to major cities. By Dec. 25, more than 55 million were under wind chill alerts. As of the morning of Dec. 26, about 250,000 homes and businesses were without power.
“The grid is set up to keep the power flowing reliably this winter under forecast conditions, but the tightening of our margins will begin to impact us in the next few years if it continues,” said Aftab Khan, executive vice president – operations, planning and security. “PJM is working on multiple levels with all of our stakeholders to reverse this trend of demand growing faster than we can add generation.”
To develop its winter scenario forecasts, PJM analyzes expected electricity demand, weather predictions and other factors. The National Weather Service predicts a slightly warmer winter for the Atlantic seaboard, with typical temperatures – but above-average precipitation – in PJM’s midwestern states of Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan and Ohio.
