Join Jeanette Hoffman and Joshua Henne—two political veterans from opposite sides—in a weekly column that dives into New Jersey’s gubernatorial race. Each week, the husband-and-wife duo offers candid insights, spirited debate, and insider perspectives on the key issues, campaign strategies, and political drama shaping the election. Whether you lean left or right, Hoffman and Henne bring you a modern-day bipartisan exchange—thought-provoking, witty, and unfiltered.
After weeks of debate and campaign sparring, Election Day is finally here. In their final Inside the Race column, Hoffman and Henne set aside the stump speeches and offer their predictions, key counties to watch and insights on the issues that could decide New Jersey’s gubernatorial race. From vote-by-mail trends to independent voters and local turnout, the two political strategists give one last look at how this historic race might end.
Thank you for following Hoffman & Henne’s Inside the Race column throughout the campaign. Find full Election Day coverage at ROI-NJ.com.
JEANETTE: It’s finally Election Day! I know we both have our predictions. You’re thinking this race is a referendum on Donald Trump and tariffs and Trump and Trump…, and clearly, that’s what Mikie Sherrill’s made it all about.
JOSHUA: And you’d say there’s a lot of enthusiasm for Jack Ciattarelli, with voters looking to turn the page on 8 years of Governor Murphy.
JEANETTE: Which is completely true! It’s the Democrats in control of the State House for nearly a quarter-century who’ve given us the highest property taxes and skyrocketing energy bills, not the President.
JOSHUA: It’s just the President who’s given us higher grocery prices, the cessation of food stamps, a self-inflicted energy crisis and ICE snapping up local restaurant owners and pre-school teachers.
But, instead of giving the litany of reasons why each candidate could win, let’s talk about some things we’ll be looking for tonight.
JEANETTE: Well, we all know Mikie will amass a big vote-by-mail lead (even though she’s currently underperforming 2021 levels). So, of course, Republicans need to storm the polls today.
JOSHUA: It doesn’t help Republicans when Trump all but tells his base not to engage in the tried-and-true and fair method of voting by mail. Just add that to the list of things Trump’s given Ciattarelli’s team agita over the past few weeks.
JEANETTE: Jack needs big margins in Ocean, Morris and Monmouth. In particular, the Orthodox Jewish communities in Lakewood and surrounding towns promised to deliver huge pluralities, which may offset some of the Democrats’ bigger municipalities. Looking at Lakewood alone, I’m impressed with early voting – with almost 20,000 cast already, the third-most in the state so far.
JOSHUA: Essex and Middlesex were both early Mikie-backers. They have a lot of skin in the game, with big operations working to get the vote out. And Essex is Mikie’s home turf.
JEANETTE: How will independents break? That could be the deciding factor. Almost every poll shows Jack up 10 points among this pivotal bloc. Democrats have the luxury of an 800,000-voter advantage. So, Jack needs Independents to break by a margin of roughly 2-1, with Republicans coming out in force.
JOSHUA: Well, maybe Jack should’ve made a bigger break – or any break – with a deeply unpopular Trump if he wanted to make a play for the Independents that any Republican needs to emerge victorious.
JEANETTE: Come on…unlike purely partisan Democrats, not every voter views things through the lens of DC politics.
JOSHUA: No, but they do view their bank accounts dwindling directly due to MAGA policies and tariffs making every single item under the sun more expensive.
JEANETTE: You aren’t giving New Jersey voters enough credit. We’re sophisticated enough to know property taxes, energy bills and schools are controlled by Trenton.
Also, this isn’t a 2018 congressional race…Though you wouldn’t know it from Mikie’s campaign. Jack enjoys tremendous crossover appeal. He’s given voters a plan on how to fix New Jersey. Unlike Mikie, who just whines about Trump every five minutes…when she’s not talking about flying helicopters in the Navy.
JOSHUA: Well, one thing everyone agrees on is we’re all tired of helicopters in ads…and all campaign spots in general. It’s almost reached that “Stronger than the Storm” level on the airwaves. Or am I dating myself with that one?
JEANETTE: You totally are!
JOSHUA: Then again, the only helicopter Jack took was the one he chartered last Spring to fly into Trump’s Bedminster golf club because he was scared of Bill Spadea.
Speaking of which, I’ll be curious how much Spadea bashing Jack every morning on 101.5 will cut into MAGA base turnout.
JEANETTE: Republicans, Democrats and Independents alike are ready for change. It just depends on what kind of change they’re looking for.
We’ll both be looking at swing counties like Bergen. Also, Passaic turned red for Trump for the first time since Reagan. Not sure that’ll happen again, but if Jack can keep it close, that’s a good sign.
JOSHUA: I think a lot of Passaic last year had to do with Mideast events, along with the tragedy of Congressman Bill Pascrell passing a few months before Election Day. But we’ll see.
I’m also curious if the NYC mayoral race will have any effect on North Jersey’s media market.
JEANETTE: You mean the socialist/communist Mamdani promising to defund the police and raise taxes by billions? The same one Mikie endorsed?
Bergen is the most populated county, so Republicans need to keep it close there, too. In 2021, Murphy received 15,000 more votes. Jack’s spent a ton of time in Bergen, so things should be much tighter. And as you mentioned, the NYC election sends a warning against dangerous Democrat policies.
JOSHUA: But, North Jersey voters certainly won’t love Trump’s decision to withhold Congressionally-approved funds for the tunnel linking to Manhattan. And for this news to break so recently is another gift from Trump. Mikie might have to send Donald a McDonald’s gift basket when this campaign’s over.
Speaking of Hudson, I’m curious how competitive mayoral races in Jersey City and Bayonne will impact turnout. It’s a good sign for Democrats that Jersey City has one of the highest early in-person voting rates.
JEANETTE: I’m curious how Nick Sacco’s endorsement will help Jack in West New York. And in general, how many Democrats will cross party lines to vote for Ciattarelli. With over a dozen elected officials endorsing, clearly, many Dems are fed up and ready for change.
JOSHUA: Even before Sacco’s announcement, Union City Mayor Brian Stack was already all-in for Mikie. No one has a better, stronger GOTV operation. Stack is always a 24/7 workhorse. But once Sacco joined in….ya gotta think he’ll even go further around the clock.
JEANETTE: The Latino vote is another important demographic. Jack was endorsed by the very influential clergy groups representing over 100 Latino churches.
JOSHUA: 2024’s Latino inroads came before all the insanity with masked ICE agents running roughshod in neighborhoods. Knocking people down just because of their skin color is sending shivers down the spines of so many immigrant families. Or anyone with a heart.
JEANETTE: I agree, everyone is curious about that vote. 2 million Latinos call New Jersey home, and many voted Republican last year. Will that trend continue? Analysts are looking at the Garden State as a national bellwether for this constituency.
JOSHUA: It’s always dicey to bank on past being prologue in politics. I keep hearing how close Jack came in 2021. But there are several convenient things people leave out.
A) A Democrat was in the White House, and New Jersey and Virginia are both viewed as referendums. B) Jack was taking on an incumbent in Phil Murphy. C) A year after Covid first hit, voters expressed discontent on schools and lockdowns. D) When it came to campaigning, Democrats still weren’t knocking door-to-door or hosting lots of events.
JEANETTE: Actually, it was much more difficult for Jack to run against incumbent Governor Murphy. We’re seeing it play out now. Democrats’ vote-by-mail margins aren’t nearly as robust as in 2021.
I’d also argue this election’s a referendum on policies of the State House, not the White House. Finally, the national GOP didn’t invest nearly as much time or resources in this race four years ago.
But this go-around, between GOTV efforts and financial support, everyone’s united to get Jack across the finish line because they know he can win.
JOSHUA: Hey, I’ve said all along Jack’s a super-likable guy who’s run a solid campaign. But dissatisfaction with Trump, tariffs and Republicans in total control of the federal government will carry the day. This election will be a canary in the campaign coal mine for what we’ll see in congressional midterms and statewide races all across America next year.
JEANETTE: Well, I guess New Jersey is the focus group for the nation. But I think Garden State voters are smart enough not to fall for the Democrats’ ploy.
But we both can’t be right. So on Wednesday, the loser has to buy dinner? Because we’re both going to be too tired to cook!
JOSHUA: Winner buys dinner? We share a bank account! But that also gives me one last chance to mention how much groceries have spiked under Trump, which might be enough alone to carry Mikie to victory.
Thank you for following Hoffman & Henne’s Inside the Race column throughout the campaign. Find full Election Day coverage at ROI-NJ.com.
