AAA projects 81.8 million people will travel at least 50 miles from home over the Thanksgiving holiday period from Tuesday, Nov. 25 to Monday, Dec. 1. More than 2 million New Jersey residents are projected to travel – a 1.6% increase over last Thanksgiving holiday period. The overwhelming majority (1.8 million) will journey by car.
This year’s domestic national travel forecast includes 1.6 million more travelers compared with last Thanksgiving, setting an overall record. Some of those travelers may switch their mode of transportation as the holiday approaches, if flight reductions remain a concern.
Thanksgiving is the single-busiest holiday for travel compared with other holidays such as Memorial Day and July 4.
“Thanksgiving travel numbers are always impressive because this holiday has become synonymous with heading out of town to spend time with loved ones,” said Stacey Barber, vice president of AAA Travel. “People are willing to brave the crowds and make last-minute adjustments to their plans to make lifelong memories, whether it’s visiting extended family or meeting up with friends.”
That means drivers can expect to see large increases in travel times – double in some cases. Drivers leaving the Philadelphia area for the Poconos can expect to see the worst traffic. INRIX, a provider of transportation data, projects peak traffic around 4:30 p.m. on Tuesday, Nov. 25, a 58% increase in travel time resulting in just over a four-hour trip.
AAA projects at least 73 million people will travel by car, nearly 90% of Thanksgiving travelers. That figure could end up being higher if air travelers whose flights are cancelled or people who want to avoid airports decide to drive. This year, AAA projects 1.3 million more travelers on the road compared with last Thanksgiving. Given flight reductions that number could be higher.
For travelers who are renting cars, AAA car rental partner Hertz says Wednesday is expected to be the busiest pick-up day. The top five markets with the highest demand are Orlando, Atlanta, Las Vegas, Miami and Newark. According to AAA booking data, domestic car rentals are 15% cheaper this Thanksgiving compared with last year.
At the pump, drivers are paying about the same as last year, when the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline was $3.07, according to AAA. The New Jersey average is $3.03, compared with $2.89 in 2024.
According to AAA, 6 million U.S. travelers are expected to take domestic flights over the Thanksgiving holiday period, a 2% increase compared with 2024. That number could be lower as flights get cancelled or travelers make other plans. The number of Thanksgiving air travelers in recent years – with the exception of 2020 – has been between 5 million and 6 million.
According to AAA data, which is based on what travelers paid when they booked their Thanksgiving trips, a roundtrip domestic flight is averaging $700, which is similar to last year. It’s cheaper to fly on Thanksgiving Day itself, but the flight home is what drives up the ticket price since Sunday and Monday are the busiest return days.
Travel by other modes is expected to increase by 8.5% to nearly 2.5 million people. Those travelers are taking trips by bus, train, and cruise. Buses and trains could see an uptick in last-minute bookings this year.
Cruising is building on its record post-pandemic growth. This year alone, AAA is projecting 20.7 million American cruise passengers. That number is even higher for 2026 with AAA forecasting 21.7 million U.S. travelers taking ocean cruises.
