According to the latest Rutgers-Eagleton Poll, numerous New Jersey registered voters are unaware or unsure that a primary election for governor is happening on June 10.
In an early April poll, when asked about the next election date in New Jersey taking place, 4% of participants say June 10, and another 20% say it will take place some point in June, including individuals who got the right month but wrong date. Thirty-five percent say November; 1% mention an upcoming special election in their area; and 24% say “other.” Sixteen percent are unsure of when the next election will take place.
“Any election not held during a presidential year or not in November has historically seen lower turnout due to less awareness, less interest and less engagement,” said Ashley Koning, an assistant research professor and director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling (ECPIP) at Rutgers University-New Brunswick. “New Jersey’s gubernatorial primaries are the perfect storm for this – typically held in June and never during a presidential year – with turnout in past primaries in the single digits to low double digits.”
Registered voters aren’t more aware of the primary date than the general population; voters are only slightly less likely to say they are unsure compared to all residents. While a few party supporters know the exact date, Democrats are slightly more likely than both Republicans and independents to, at least, guess the correct month.
“Since independents are able to change their registration to vote in the primaries or declare their party at the polls in-person, they can still play an important role in the upcoming election, but they are not as tuned in as their partisan counterparts right now,” said Koning. “The reality is, if more independents were aware and declared a party, it could potentially change the game for many of the primary candidates, particularly on the Democratic side.”
Knowledge that there is an election sometime in June increases with age, according to the poll findings. Hispanic voters are less likely than non-Hispanic white or non-Hispanic Black voters to correctly guess the primary date or month.
“Disadvantaged voting groups often go unheard in primaries because they are less aware that they are taking place and therefore less likely to vote,” said Jessica Roman, director of data management and analysis at ECPIP. “Some of these groups are key to candidates’ platforms and potential victories, but those who typically vote in primaries are less a representation of the population as a whole and more likely to be affluent and well-educated.”
Results are from a statewide poll of 1,058 adults contacted through the probability-based Rutgers-Eagleton/SSRS Garden State Panel from April 1 to April 10. The full sample has a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points. The registered voter subsample contains 966 registered voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points.
