Now that the major-party candidates for governor are set, the first polls are being released, and for starters, the news is good for Democratic standard-bearer Mikie Sherrill.
The congresswoman from the 11th District leads GOP candidate and former assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli, according to the latest Rutgers-Eagleton Poll released July 1, and she is seen as more trustworthy to handle a number of issues facing the state.
Fifty-one percent of those polled say they would vote for Sherrill if the election were being held today, while 31% say they would vote for Ciattarelli; 5% say neither or someone else and 13% are unsure. When leaners are included, 56% go for Sherrill, 35% for Ciattarelli, 3% say neither or someone else and 6% are uncertain.
The poll said significant numbers of voters haven’t yet made up their minds – and the gaps between Sherrill and Ciattarelli are smallest when it comes to some of the most important issues facing New Jersey.
The New Jersey gubernatorial race is one of two contests for governor in the nation this year (the other is Virginia). The race will be closely watched to see if New Jersey, one of the bluest states in the nation, is trending more toward the GOP. The state chose Kamala Harris over Donald Trump a year ago, but the margin of victory — less than 6 percentage points — was much closer than pundits predicted. In the previous state gubernatorial race in 2021, Ciattarelli lost to Democrat Gov. Phil Murphy by about 3 percentage points. The Republican was endorsed by President Trump during the primaries this year.
“Early polling on the governor’s race should serve as a baseline or a barometer of how voters are feeling in the moment – not as some crystal ball predicting the future four months from now,” said Ashley Koning, an assistant research professor and director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University-New Brunswick. “A lot can happen between now and November, and we know this gap will very likely narrow in the next several months. We only need to look back to 2021 to see how much a race can change throughout a cycle. Add to this an intense national political landscape that will, once again, surely play a role in the governor’s race here at home. Come November, what will matter is who actually turns out to vote.”
The poll said Sherrill’s base has more quickly coalesced around her than Ciattarelli’s: 89% of Democrats (95% with leaners) say they will vote for their party’s nominee, versus 74% of Republicans (79% with leaners) who say the same about theirs. Twice as many Republicans as Democrats are unsure (14% to 7%, respectively). Independents are about one-and-a-half times more likely to go for Sherrill over Ciattarelli right now – 45% to 28% (51% to 34% with leaners), though 20% are undecided at this point (10% with leaners).
President Donald Trump looms large in the race: 52% of voters say he is a “major factor” in their vote for governor, 18% say he is a “minor” one, while 30% say he isn’t a factor at all.
“Trump’s influence appears to be more of a benefit to Sherrill right now, given key groups more likely to support her are also more likely to claim the president is a factor in their vote choice, while those more supportive of Ciattarelli do not,” Koning said.
Voters virtually are split on who would better handle taxes in New Jersey: 39% say Sherrill, 34% say Ciattarelli, 14% say neither and 14% are unsure. When it comes to the second biggest problem facing New Jersey, more voters choose Sherrill, with 45% trusting her to handle cost of living and affordability, while 29% say they would trust Ciattarelli more; 13% say neither and 13% are unsure.
On other fiscal issues, voters give Sherrill a slimmer advantage: 42% to 33% Ciattarelli on New Jersey’s economy and jobs and 42% to 32% Ciattarelli on the state budget and government spending; in each case, a quarter either say “neither” would do a better job on these issues or are unsure.
Sherrill is a clear favorite with voters right now on the issues of health care (51% to 24%) and education and schools (50% to 24%), as well as transportation and infrastructure (45% to 29%). Ciattarelli, once again, comes within the margin of error to Sherrill on the issue of crime and safety, however, with 39% saying Sherrill will do a better job, while 37% say Ciattarelli will; 9% say neither and 14% are unsure.
While Democrats and Republicans side with their respective candidates in terms of who would handle each of these issues better, it’s a true toss-up for independents on the economy, taxes, cost of living and affordability and crime and safety. Independents give Sherrill a definite edge when it comes to education and schools (46% to 19%), health care (45% to 16%), and transportation and infrastructure (40% to 23%).
Sherrill is seen as the more moderate candidate between the two and overall seen by a majority of voters as “moderate” to “somewhat liberal.” On the other hand, more than two-thirds of voters view Ciattarelli as conservative ideologically at some level.
Results are from a statewide poll of 621 adults contacted through the probability-based Rutgers-Eagleton/SSRS Garden State Panel from June 13 to June 16. The full sample has a margin of error of +/- 5.4 percentage points. The registered voter subsample contains 579 registered voters and has a margin of error of +/- 5.2 percentage points.
