The race for governor is picking up momentum as Labor Day nears, with congresswoman and Democratic nominee for New Jersey governor Mikie Sherrill holding a nine-point lead over former state assemblyman and Republican nominee Jack Ciattarelli among likely voters, according to the latest Rutgers-Eagleton Poll.
Forty-four percent say they would vote for Sherrill if the election were being held today, while 35% say they would vote for Ciattarelli, 3% say they would vote for neither or someone else and 17% are unsure. When leaners are included — respondents who first declined to choose but selected a candidate on a follow-up prompt — 47% back Sherrill, and 37% back Ciattarelli; 3% choose neither or someone else, and 12% remain undecided.
The New Jersey gubernatorial race is one of two contests for governor in the nation this year (the other is Virginia). The race will be closely watched to see if New Jersey, one of the bluest states in the nation, is trending more toward the GOP. The state chose Kamala Harris over Donald Trump a year ago, but the margin of victory — less than 6 percentage points — was much closer than pundits predicted. In the previous state gubernatorial race in 2021, Ciattarelli lost to Democrat Gov. Phil Murphy by about 3 percentage points.
Since the first Rutgers-Eagleton Poll on the race was released July 1 after both handily won their respective primaries, Ciattarelli has reduced Sherrill’s 20-point advantage by more than half.
“As summer winds down and the campaigns enter the final months, the race for governor has tightened,” said Ashley Koning, an assistant research professor and director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University-New Brunswick. “Sherrill still has the edge, but the important thing to take away here is that the race is competitive and will continue to be in flux, in large part because there are still a notable number of undecideds.”
Koning added, “We are also at a turning point in New Jersey politics. Likely voters are always an unknown population, but especially given today’s political climate, shifting turnout dynamics in the state, and the race’s history-making potential, we simply do not know who will definitively turn out come Election Day.”
Partisans take their respective sides, with 85% of Democrats saying they would vote for Sherrill and 81% of Republicans saying they would vote for Ciattarelli. Independents are nearly split down the middle, however – 33% for Sherrill versus 32% for Ciattarelli, with 29% unsure. In the July poll, independents favored Sherrill over Ciattarelli 45% to 28%.
“Independents are always a key voting bloc here in New Jersey,” said Koning. “Despite recent Republican registration gains, Ciattarelli still needs a substantial share of independents to win in November. Likewise, Sherrill must hold her edge with independents across key areas to cushion against any softness in base turnout.”
There are notable differences in key demographics. While both men and women say they would vote for Sherrill at about the same rate, women are 11 points less likely than men to say they would vote for Ciattarelli and are nine points more likely to be undecided.
White voters are divided between the two candidates (Ciattarelli 44%, Sherrill 38%), but Sherrill leads by double digits among Black voters, Hispanic voters, and Asian voters. About one in five Black voters and Hispanic voters and one-third of Asian voters remain uncertain, however.
Sherrill has a wide lead among those ages 18 to 34 (48% to 21%), but her advantage narrows among those 35 to 49 years old (47% to 29%), as well as among those who are 65 years or older (48% to 38%). Ciattarelli leads among voters ages 50 to 64 (41% to 36%).
Socioeconomic factors impact vote choice. Sherrill does better with voters who have at least a college degree (53% to 26%), while Ciattarelli has the advantage among those who have some college or less (45% to 34%). Sherrill’s lead over Ciattarelli is largest among voters in households making $150,000 or more annually (58% to 28%).
Voters in less affluent households are more divided. Ciattarelli leads Sherrill 44% to 37% among those in households making between $100,000 and $150,000, while Sherrill tops her GOP opponent 39% to 32% among those making $50,000 or less, and 43% to 35% among those earning $50,000-$100,000.
Geographically, Sherrill’s biggest margin over Ciattarelli comes from voters in urban areas (46% to 23%) and suburban areas (49% to 30%).
Results are from a statewide poll of 1,650 likely voters contacted through the probability-based Rutgers-Eagleton/SSRS Garden State Panel from July 31 to Aug. 11. The sample has a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points.
