With fewer than two weeks to go before the Nov. 4 election, congresswoman and Democratic nominee for governor Mikie Sherrill holds a five-point lead over former state assemblyman and Republican nominee Jack Ciattarelli among likely voters in New Jersey, according to the latest Rutgers-Eagleton Poll.
Fifty percent say they would vote for Sherrill if the election were held today, 45% say they would vote for Ciattarelli, 3% say they would vote for neither or someone else, and 2% are unsure. The five-point lead is within the margin of error. The candidates are neck-and-neck on economic issues, schools, and transportation, according to the poll.
The race has narrowed since the last Rutgers-Eagleton Poll in August. At that time, Sherrill held a nine-point lead, 44-35, over Ciattarelli among likely voters.
“Polls show a close race as voters tune in and opinions solidify, but the outcome will ultimately hinge on each campaign’s turnout operation,” said Ashley Koning, an assistant research professor and director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University-New Brunswick. ”This is especially true in off-year elections, which are usually accompanied by comparatively smaller and less predictable electorates.”
Partisans are taking their respective sides, with 95% of Democrats saying they would vote for Sherill and 94% of Republicans saying they would vote for Ciattarelli. Independents are more split, however – 49% for Sherrill versus 40% for Ciattarelli (within the margin of error), with 6% saying neither or someone else and 5% unsure.
There are notable differences in other key demographics, including a sharp gender gap, with women 18 points more likely than men to say they would vote for Sherrill and 16 points less likely to vote for Ciattarelli.
Non-Hispanic white voters lean in Ciattarelli’s favor (53% to 46%) and Sherrill leads by 30 points among nonwhite voters (59% to 29%). Sherrill is a clear favorite among voters 65 years or older (61% to 36%), whereas younger cohorts are more mixed – 49% to 43% among those 18 to 34, 39% to 53% among those 35 to 49, and 49% to 48% among those 50 to 64 years old.
Sherrill does better with voters who have at least a college degree (61% to 35%), while Ciattarelli does better with those who have some college education or less 55% to (38%).
President Donald Trump continues to loom large over the race, with 52% of voters saying he is a “major factor” in their vote for governor, 14% saying he is a “minor” one and 34% saying he isn’t a factor at all.
Democrats are much more prone to say Trump is a “major factor” for them (78%) than Republicans (38%). Four in 10 independents (42%) say Trump is a “major factor” for them, 20% a “minor” one and 38% not a factor at all.
Sherrill and Ciattarelli are neck-and-neck when it comes to who voters trust to do a better job handling a variety of fiscal issues.
Voters are split on who would better handle the cost of living and affordability (42% say Sherrill, 41% say Ciattarelli), New Jersey’s economy and jobs (40% say Sherrill, 46% say Ciattarelli), the state budget and government spending (39% say Sherrill, 45% say Ciattarelli), and taxes (37% say Sherrill, 44% say Ciattarelli). Voters are also divided when it comes to education and schools (47% say Sherrill, 40% say Ciattarelli), as well as transportation and infrastructure (41% say Sherrill, 40% say Ciattarelli).
Sherrill is the clear favorite with likely voters on health care (50% to 35%), while Ciattarelli is the clear favorite on crime and safety (49% to 35%).
Forty-two percent of likely voters are favorable toward Sherrill as the election draws near, while 45% are unfavorable, 11% have no opinion, and 2% don’t know who she is. Forty-one percent of likely voters are favorable toward Ciattarelli, while 47% are unfavorable, 9% have no opinion, and 2% don’t know who he is.
Results are from a statewide poll of 795 likely voters contacted via live calling and texting from Oct. 3 to Oct. 17. This likely voter sample has a margin of error of +/- 4.7 percentage points.
